Is Kerry's Mid-East Peace Initiative Finished?
Updated: 3:11am UK, Friday 25 April 2014
By Tom Rayner, Middle East Reporter, Jerusalem
The goal was perhaps unattainable from the outset.
A dream more than a plan.
John Kerry's frenetic diplomatic drive aimed to get Israeli and Palestinian leaders to thrash out the foundations of a final peace deal within nine months.
The deadline was supposed to be next Monday.
Hope of that lies in tatters.
What is worse for Secretary Kerry, is that this wasn't a sudden death.
The negotiations have not experienced a sudden spasm days before a deal - they've been rotting for months.
For weeks, both sides have been waiting to see who could point the finger and say: "There, you see! They didn't want peace in the first place. It's their fault."
Yesterday's announcement of a reconciliation deal between the Fatah party of Palestinian President Abbas and Hamas, gave Benjamin Netanyahu the opportunity to jab the accusatory finger.
The Israeli leader said he will never negotiate with Hamas - the governing power in Gaza, deemed by much of the international community to be a "terrorist organisation".
Abbas had chosen Hamas over peace, Mr Netanyahu said. Talks suspended.
The retort from the Palestinians is that Mr Netanyahu killed the talks long before.
He refused to release a tranche of prisoners and continued to grant permissions for construction of settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank - this, they say, was the moment it all collapsed.
So where does this leave John Kerry?
Deflated, but according to diplomatic sources in Jerusalem, reluctant to walk away.
The reason for this lies in the "constructive ambiguity" of the statements being made by Israel.
The language is tough, but it is not final.
Israel has seen attempts at reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas come and go before.
They know this reconciliation deal could disintegrate as quickly as it emerged.
For now the door remains ajar.
The suspension, therefore, is being seen as a five week hiatus, to see if the proposed "unity government" of Fatah and Hamas ministers can actually be put together.
The hope, particularly for those in the Israeli cabinet supportive of talks, is that the lack of detail in the reconciliation deal will render it unachievable.
For Mr Kerry there is another dimension - that the reconciliation deal may have achieved more than the Palestinians are letting on.
No detail has yet emerged of what reconciliation will mean for the internal security relationship between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
No detail has emerged on whether Hamas prisoners will be freed from Fatah's jails, or on what terms.
No detail has emerged on whether a unity government including Hamas, would stick to the Quartet Principles – the recognition of Israel and renunciation of violence, which are key to recognition of the Palestinian Authority by the international community.
The answer to whether talks can resume lies in the answers to those questions - the last in particular.
It may be unlikely that Hamas has been coaxed tentatively in from the cold, but until that is clear, Kerry's unattainable dream might have further to run.
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