It is clear that the war in Ukraine is now at a crucial turning point. Russian-backed rebels have the momentum and they are advancing.
It is impossible to know whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has an end game but it is doubtful he will be frightened by the words coming from Western leaders at the Munich security conference.
The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, has told Russia it must respect the sovereignty of other nations, and US Vice President Joe Biden has said the redrawing of borders will not be tolerated.
But the fact remains that these are just words and since the annexation of Crimea we have heard the rhetoric plenty of times before.
The Kremlin has not been deterred by such language in the past.
The Russians also believe the US suggestion of sending sophisticated weapons to the Ukrainian army is unlikely - they think it sounds like bluff.
And if you listen to Chancellor Merkel and put two and two together, they may be right.
She has stated that, in her opinion, such a move would only exacerbate the conflagration - it's not likely to happen then if the most powerful person in Europe says Nein!
In fact, there isn't much appetite from any NATO country to turn Ukraine into a proxy war.
So what happens next?
The diplomacy will continue and when it suits the Kremlin the conflict will be frozen.
A slice of Ukraine will then be assimilated into Russian territory, either formally or informally - it doesn't really matter.
The interesting dimension is if Vladimir Putin has overreached.
A prolonged drop in the oil price and the pain from sanctions may yet brew trouble at home.
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