Israeli Electorate Mulls Giving PM A Haircut

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 17 Maret 2015 | 14.59

Israel's latest general election is not, as one wag put it, going to be a walk over for Mr Combover. But he may escape a haircut.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the incumbent Prime Minister, has been rattled as his Likud party has been showing signs of weakening in the polls.

The last and final pre-election polls suggest his party will only get 20 seats in the 120 seat Knesset.

The newly formed Zionist Union, led by former Labour stalwarts Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni, may garner 26 seats – a better showing than in polls ahead of the 2013 elections.

Campaigning has been intense. Voter turnout is expected to top 70%.

But what is likely is weeks of grinding coalition talks because, as things stand now, neither the right nor the left blocs can guarantee they'll be able to stitch together the 61 seats required to form a majority.

Israeli Arab voters, who number about 20% of the population, are likely to turn out for the United List of former rival mainly Arab parties. They could get 13 seats which would make them the third largest party in the legislature.

So far their leaders have ruled out joining a ruling coalition. This is a blow to the left because Arab seats would have brought them closer to dominating the Knesset.

Both the left and the right will have to get into bed with religious parties if they are going to form a government which means inevitable trading in the political souk.

Mr Netanyahu has been preening himself for a large turnout of supporters, like the one he got on Sunday night at a rally in Tel Aviv.

Likud grandee Zalman Shoval, a two-time former Israeli ambassador to the US, told Sky News that there was an "awareness that they need to turn out to avoid the sort of result they don't want" – a centre-left coalition.

But many or even most of those at the rally wore the white and blue kippa of the religious right and settlement movement. Mr Netanyahu has solid support among those who were always going to vote for the right. He may be losing those in the centre though.

This may be due to the rapid increase in the cost of living in Israel and perceptions among many that the wealth gap in a traditionally egalitarian Israel is widening to unacceptable levels.

It may also be partly due to dismay at the atrocious relationship that he has with US President Barack Obama and the wider Democratic Party in Washington where he addressed both houses of Congress against the wishes of the White House.

But even if "Mr Security" is seen as a liability abroad, a right-wing coalition looks marginally more likely than a left-wing government. This is assuming Mr Netanyahu can appeal to the religious parties over the heads of Mr Herzog and only if the polls are correct.

In 2013, opinion polls hugely underestimated the success of the centrist Yesh Atid party. Mr Combover will be hoping that they have been accurate in their assessment of the Zionist Union and that it won't see a surge. If not it's off to the barber.


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